Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
